Basics of successful betting
Everyone has long known that it is impossible to deceive a casino or a bookmaker - everything is calculated so accurately that even if a player wins money, he does this at the expense of losing other players. However, if there are some tips, following which you can become a more successful bettor than others. In this article, we will consider the advice of betting experts. More information about betting activities from online bookmakers you may find online.
Does Probability Work?
Many bettors are convinced that the theory of probability does not work in sports betting because the result of a sports match depends on a number of external factors and a lot of randomnesses. In addition, much also depends on the human factor. Basically, it is. However, the fact that the result of the match depends on many chances only says that the player cannot know in advance the probability of the result. Nevertheless, one should not forget about the laws of mathematics and probability theory, which exist regardless of specific events, and in many respects are the basis of betting activity.
There are no safe bets
In fact, no one knows the real probability of a sporting event - neither the player nor the bookmaker. We can say that the bookmaker evaluates the probability by issuing odds for this event.
There are several explanations why there can't be win-win bets:
- Making bets without mistakes is unrealistic, but besides this, even the most accurate analysis and an ideal forecast can block the human factor. Often there are referee or athlete errors, an accidental goal, and other factors;
- Even if you fully adhere to the rules, there are still no strategies that allow you to consistently generate profits regardless of the stakes;
- Any professional athletes and experts also cannot give win-win predictions, because any bet is a big risk, even if the odds are 1.01.
What is dispersion?
There is a good example given by many experienced bettors. Let's say we have a coin. The probability of getting one of the sides of the coin is 50%. This means that, on average, each side should drop once in two rolls. But in fact, a person can flip a coin ten times, and all ten times only one side can fall out, for example, tails. This is what is called variance - and it is the variance that often confuses many players.
In fact, the probability value means the frequency with which some event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. Therefore, the fewer times we toss a coin, the more (in percentage terms) the real result may deviate from the mathematical expectation.
What is the difference between bookmakers and casinos?
Many bettors compare betting with casinos - after all, both of these entertainments bring great excitement to people. It seems that both there and there it is impossible to win. However, there is a big difference between a bookmaker's office and a casino: if in a casino all the probabilities are known in advance, then no one, even a bookmaker, can predict the outcome of sporting events.
Therefore, situations regularly occur when bookmakers give odds above 2 for events in which the real probability is around 50%.
If we draw general conclusions regarding sports betting, then we can say that you need to be well versed in mathematics, statistics, and probability theory at the same time in order to successfully bet on sports. In addition, of course, you will also need knowledge of the principles of betting odds, as well as the main features of the sport you want to bet on.